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President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike. For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse. In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran. It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow. Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. She speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. -------- Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube Weekdays 7am-6pm ET WATCH HERE: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF Follow us on X: / bloombergradio Subscribe to our Podcasts: Bloomberg Daybreak: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Bloomberg Surveillance: http://bit.ly/3OPtReI Bloomberg Intelligence: http://bit.ly/3YrBfOi Balance of Power: http://bit.ly/3OO8eLC Bloomberg Businessweek: http://bit.ly/3IPl60i Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app: Apple CarPlay: https://apple.co/486mghI Android Auto: https://bit.ly/49benZy Visit our YouTube channels: Bloomberg Podcasts: / bloombergpodcasts Bloomberg Television: / @markets Bloomberg Originals: / bloomberg Quicktake: / @bloombergquicktake