The Bull Market’s Real Kill Switch | Victoria Greene on What Will End It скачать в хорошем качестве

The Bull Market’s Real Kill Switch | Victoria Greene on What Will End It

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets. Main topics covered • Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets • The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility • Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality • Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now • Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity • The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings • 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today • AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity • Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning • Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market • How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets 01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction 06:00 Cash flow never lies explained 07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps 10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk 11:00 What is a badger market 12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead 15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets 18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise 21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk 26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health 31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect 34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability 36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk 41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world 43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7 47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle 49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities 53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations