Stock Market: Current Shiller CAPE Ratio & Long-Term Returns скачать в хорошем качестве

Stock Market: Current Shiller CAPE Ratio & Long-Term Returns

The Shiller CAPE ratio is one of the most widely cited valuation measures in equity markets — and also one of the most misunderstood. In this clip, I place the current Shiller CAPE level into long-term historical context, showing where today’s valuation sits relative to the past century of market history. The focus is not on short-term market timing, but on what starting valuation levels have historically meant for long-term real returns. Using: a long-term CAPE time series and a scatter plot of CAPE vs. subsequent 10-year real returns the key takeaway is not that valuation predicts short-term market moves — it doesn’t — but that starting points matter for long-term outcomes. At elevated valuation levels: markets can remain expensive in the short run outcomes can vary widely but the historical margin for error narrows This is context, not a forecast. Short-form highlight from JP: On Finance. Excerpt from a longer discussion covering market structure, risk, and macro-financial topics. Full-length commentary is available on the main channel:    / @jponfinance   Educational content only. Not investment advice.