Developments at ECMWF in Atlantic tropical wave and cyclogenesis forecasting – Sharanya Majumdar скачать в хорошем качестве

Developments at ECMWF in Atlantic tropical wave and cyclogenesis forecasting – Sharanya Majumdar

Developments at ECMWF in Atlantic tropical wave and cyclogenesis forecasting - 6/12/25 Sharanya (Sharan) Majumdar University of Miami ABSTRACT: Predicting the evolution of tropical waves and whether they will develop into tropical cyclones remains a significant challenge. First, evaluations of the skill and consistency of probabilistic genesis forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclones in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) will be summarized. The cases that possessed the lowest probabilities (less than) 4 days before genesis were largely associated with weaker waves (e.g., Ian 2022; Beryl 2024) and/or complex interactions (e.g., Laura 2020; Ida 2021), and warrant further investigation. Probabilistic genesis forecasts using the parallel version 49r1 (which became operational in November 2024) and ECMWF’s experimental new AI Forecasting System (AIFS) ensemble have also been investigated for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Differences between the IFS and AIFS probabilistic forecasts will be highlighted. Finally, for developing tropical waves in 2023-24, the IFS control (“deterministic”) forecast wave tracks have been compared against the corresponding AIFS forecasts that used the same initial conditions. Some minor advantages of the AIFS forecasts 2-7 days prior to genesis have been identified. These results will be discussed in the context of ongoing developments at ECMWF.