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he US-Canada dairy trade dispute is reaching a critical breaking point. With a mandatory July 1, 2026 deadline for the CUSMA review approaching, billions of dollars in trade hang in the balance. In this investigation, I break down: • Why Canada maintains 298% tariffs on American butter • How quota manipulation blocks $120 million in annual trade • The March 2026 ITC dumping investigation that changes everything • What the July deadline means for $1.6 trillion in North American trade • Four possible scenarios and what each means for your grocery bill Canada's supply management system protects 10,000 dairy farms but costs Canadian families $300-600 per year. The US has secured only 42% of promised market access despite a 67% increase in dairy exports since 2021. With 74 bipartisan lawmakers demanding action and Canada's Senate making compromise illegal, something has to give. The March ITC report on alleged dairy dumping will set the tone for negotiations. If confirmed, the US gains leverage for punitive duties right before the critical July review. Canada's position: supply management is non-negotiable. America's position: dairy access is a structural condition for renewal. This isn't just about dairy - it's about whether the largest trading bloc in the world operates as genuine partnership or American dominance. Timeline: • March 2026: ITC dumping investigation results • July 1, 2026: Mandatory CUSMA review deadline • At stake: $1.6 trillion in annual trilateral trade