ARMR Action: Only One Focus on this Trading Desk...Harvest Alpha скачать в хорошем качестве

ARMR Action: Only One Focus on this Trading Desk...Harvest Alpha

4/7/25  8:45 Morning Meeting Notes  Risk Monitor RED/IBD Green [0-20%] [Max Cash] armrSPY Swing RED [RSP RED] armrSPXL Swing Trade #20 closed 3/18/25 [Loss] armrQQQ Swing RED[QQQE RED]  Risk Monitor [Market] commentary: Risk Monitor Red 2/21/25 top ticked the Bull market and helped us defend capital in the Bear of 2025  Over 1 month ago I shared my thoughts that 2025 has an uncanny resemblance to 2000. The Dot.com bubble & the AI bubble. History rhymes The Trump Tariff Tantrum has lit the fuse of a market already destined to collapse Excesses needed to be expunged  Where we are now... China’s stock market plunges in its biggest one-day crash since 2008 China looking at devaluing the Yuan against the Dollar. Some strategist think they may be looking at a 15 to 30% devaluation in a very short time frame. This will be a major problem and implode a currency carry trade on some big hedge funds books Nikkei futures suspended after hitting circuit breaker NASDAQ 100 has now fallen by at least 20% for first time since 2022 bear market … max drawdown back then was -35.5% 70% of Russell 2000 members are at a 3-month low … highest % since COVID bear market Hit circuit breakers overnight: China Taiwan Japan Russell Futures Australia Singapore TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT MARKETS, SAYS SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO TAKE MEDICINE Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro: "You either think tariffs are a means to an end or an end in and of themselves. The sooner everyone realizes that is probably the latter, the sooner we can start talking about getting back into the market." RBC's Lori Calvasina: "As we were speaking to various people about the stock market on Thursday and Friday, one thought that occurred to us was how rapidly the concern of many financial market participants seemed to swing from stagflation to recession." 2000 Bear turned into 2001 recession  The post–Liberation Day announcement sell-off was the fourth-largest two-day market drop since WWII — only the 1987 crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 panic were worse. And the only thing that arrested those last 2 collapses was Fed intervention which Powell said last week he would not be doing at this time US single stocks, is inverted and shows shorting for ETF’s reaching new ATH’s [bullish at some point] The biggest 2 day rallies occur on a Bear Market Taiwan announces temporary short-selling restrictions after US tariffs. Restricting Short Sellers has always led to lower prices. It is an oxymoronical move  ARMR Flagship Fund: 95% Cash [UST-Bills] 5% PHYS Hunting the SPY Alpha Harvest trade  I will be looking for Long SSO day trades that I may hold overnight for Swing trade if we earn the right to hold the risk Highlighted Action: "What stock decline will it take to get Trump back off his tariff stance? This is the wrong metric. The correct metric is his approval rating. If that craters, then either Trump caves or he is at risk of Republicans abandoning him" Jim Bianco "47% is still above anything in Trump 1.0% (red). It is also above the average of the last 12 years (dashed line) and above 1 std dev of all readings since 2013 (above shaded). If it holds around 47-ish%, that is enough for him to keep going with Republican backing" ARMR Portfolio: Max Risk Off  ARMR Carry Tough day but we will get at it again next week Outside of out playbook was the thought this morning And while I reduced position size it was still a difficult day Next week I may shift to trade only SPY [no leverage]  ARMR Macro 95% UST-Bills 10% PHYS Will be Carry trading  ARMR IG ALL CASH ARMR TD Removed KMI ENB DUK SO AEP D MO BTI UVV VZ Holding AMLP T ARMR Research Department Established a MSTR Put position into the close Friday  You either fall into 1 of 2 categories: BTC is a store of value and will hold up in this market meltdown or it is a risk on asset artificially help up by MSTR type buying. The buying scheme for MSTR is predicated on the ability to tape an endless source of funds thru the debt markets That source of liquidity died an ugly death last week  So now we will see if BTC can stand on its own merits  With MSTR higher on Friday in the midst of the all-out assault on asset prices I just could help myself...I had to get Short MSTR [Puts]  DISCLAIMER: All of ARMRreport, our trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on our opinions alone and are only for educational purposes. You should not take any of this information as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. I am only sharing my biased opinion based off of speculation and personal experience. An individual trader's/investor's results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. It is important to keep in mind that there are risks associated with investing in the stock market and that one can lose all of their investment. Thus, trades/investments should not be based on the opinions of others but by your own research and due diligence