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A Tale Of Woes

While Ed and Eric have been accentuating the positives in the stock market outlook and also acknowledging the negatives, investors and many commentators seem suddenly to be doing the opposite. Today, Ed outlines both the concerns that dragged the stock market off its midweek record high last week and our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario (55% subjective odds). Even if a 1990s-style meltup was followed by a meltdown (25% odds), we’d expect that meltdown to be short-lived. That’s because our productivity-driven Roaring 2020s economic scenario would still be buoying corporate earnings. … Also: what we’re monitoring to assess the concerns that have weakened the market in recent days, thus focusing our attention on our “bucket list” of what could go wrong (20% odds).