Understanding Business Cycle - Module 2 – Economics – CFA® Level I 2025 скачать в хорошем качестве

Understanding Business Cycle - Module 2 – Economics – CFA® Level I 2025

Download PDF Now: https://www.finquiz.com/cfa/level-1/s... 2025 Prep Packages for the CFA® Program exam offered by FinQuiz Pro (notes, summaries, question bank, mock exams, and formula sheet): Level I: https://www.finquiz.com/cfa/level-1/ Level II: https://www.finquiz.com/cfa/level-2/ Level III: https://www.finquiz.com/cfa/level-3/ 0:00 Introduction & Factors Influencing Business Cycles Defining business cycles (ups and downs in economic activity) Key factors: population growth, tech advances, capital investment, expectations, policy 0:42 Defining a Business Cycle: Expansion vs. Contraction Typical phases: upswing (expansion) and downswing (contraction) Peak (highest point) and trough (lowest point) Duration usually 1–12 years 1:20 Three Main Types of Cycles (Classical, Growth & Growth Rate) Classical Cycle: fluctuations in actual GDP level Growth Cycle: activity above/below trend growth Growth Rate Cycle: timing of peaks/troughs in GDP growth 2:00 Four Phases in Detail: Recovery, Expansion, Slowdown, Contraction Recovery (rising from a trough) Expansion (surpassing potential output) Slowdown (growth peaks, then moderates) Contraction (falling below potential output) 3:17 Real-World Economic Events Dotcom Bubble & Aftermath (late 1990s–early 2000s) 2008 Financial Crisis (housing boom-bust, credit crunch) COVID-19 Pandemic (sudden global contraction, recovery phase) 5:02 Sectoral Impact & Investment Implications Cyclical sectors (tech, consumer discretionary) vs. defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) Adjusting portfolios based on anticipated cycle phases 6:30 Forecasting Business Cycles: Investor Strategies Recovery phase: optimism, appetite for risky assets Expansion phase: growth stocks, caution on overheating Slowdown phase: shift toward bonds/defensive stocks Contraction phase: safer assets (bonds, stable cash flow stocks) 8:00 Credit Cycles & Their Amplification of Business Cycles Availability and cost of credit can intensify expansions/contractions Loose credit fueling booms, tight credit deepening recessions 2000s housing bubble as an example 9:04 How Economic Indicators Evolve Over the Cycle Workforce & company costs (labor retention, layoffs, overhead adjustments) Capital spending decisions (capacity utilization, confidence) Inventory levels (inventory-sales ratio, liquidation in downturns) 10:30 Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indicators Leading (stock prices, new orders, unemployment claims) Coincident (GDP, industrial production, employment) Lagging (consumer prices, unemployment rate, corporate profits) 12:00 Composite Indicators & Nowcasting Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) How OECD and central banks use composite indicators Nowcasting (real-time data usage, e.g., “GDP Now”) 13:00 Importance for CFA Candidates Monitoring business and credit cycles for better investment decisions Recognizing each phase’s effect on different sectors/asset classes Incorporating big data in cycle analysis 14:15 Final Thoughts on Practical Applications Policy responses (fiscal, monetary) to cycle phases Real-world impacts on housing, stock markets, and business investment Investor strategies during each stage 15:30 Conclusion & CFA Exam Prep Tips Summation of cycle theory and real-world examples Relevance to macroeconomics, sector rotation, and portfolio positioning Encouragement to review cycle definitions, indicators, and credit cycle interplay 19:11 Wrap-Up & Farewell End of session remarks Reminder to keep studying business cycles for exam & professional insights Invitation for further questions