温铁军: 2005年，中国实体经济（制造业产出）已超越美国 In 2005, China's real economy surpassed that of the US[ENG SUB] [中英字幕] скачать в хорошем качестве

温铁军: 2005年，中国实体经济（制造业产出）已超越美国 In 2005, China's real economy surpassed that of the US[ENG SUB] [中英字幕]

The 1990s marked a period of rapid growth in the U.S. IT sector, fueled by speculative investments in internet-based companies, leading to the dot-com bubble. This bubble burst in 2001, triggering a recession known as the "New Economic Crisis". The collapse of overvalued tech stocks, such as those on the Nasdaq (which lost 78% of its peak value by 2002), resulted in massive capital outflows from the U.S. 20世纪90年代是美国IT行业的快速增长期，互联网公司的投机性投资是其发展的动力，并催生了互联网泡沫。2001年，互联网泡沫破裂，引发了被称为“新经济危机”的经济衰退。纳斯达克等估值过高的科技股暴跌（到2002年，纳斯达克指数的市值已缩水78%），导致美国资本大规模外流。 Post-Crisis Capital Reallocation: Following the 2001 crisis, U.S. and Western industrial capital sought stable, high-return environments. China emerged as a primary destination due to its strong infrastructure (modern highways, airports), low labor costs, and government-controlled industrial zones (e.g., Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong) that aligned with multinational corporations' needs for centralized management and scalability. By 2003, China became the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), driven by this influx of capital  后危机时代的资本再配置： 2001年金融危机后，美国和西方的工业资本寻求稳定、高回报的环境。中国凭借其强大的基础设施（现代化的高速公路、机场）、低廉的劳动力成本以及政府控制的工业园区（例如江苏、上海、山东），成为跨国公司寻求集中管理和可扩展性需求的首选目的地。到2003年，受这些资本流入的推动，中国成为全球最大的外国直接投资（FDI）接受国。 Shift in Investment Focus: Unlike earlier low-end manufacturing investments in Southeast Asia or China’s Guangdong and Fujian (dominated by private, export-oriented industries like textiles), post-2001 capital targeted state-backed industrial systems. These regions offered predictability, regulatory control, and integration into global supply chains, contrasting with southern Zhejiang’s decentralized, private-sector-dominated economy, which resisted external capital penetration 投资重点转变： 与早期东南亚或中国广东、福建等地的低端制造业投资（以纺织等私营出口导向型产业为主）不同，2001年后的资本瞄准的是国家支持的工业体系。这些地区经济可预测性强，监管控制到位，并能融入全球供应链，这与浙江南部分散的、以私营部门为主导的经济形成了鲜明对比，后者抵制外部资本的渗透。 Economic and Political Interplay: The 2001 crisis coincided with geopolitical upheavals like the 9/11 attacks, which destabilized U.S. financial and military confidence. This dual crisis accelerated capital flight to perceived "safe havens" like China, fostering a strategic Sino-U.S. relationship termed "G2" or "Chimerica" by analysts like Goldman Sachs. This era saw intertwined economies, with U.S. industrial capital relying on China’s manufacturing base for global trade 经济与政治的相互作用：2001年的危机恰逢“9·11”袭击等地缘政治动荡，动摇了美国的金融和军事信心。这场双重危机加速了资本向中国等所谓的“避风港”的外逃，促成了中美战略关系，高盛等分析师称之为“G2”或“中美国”。这个时代见证了经济的相互交织，美国工业资本依赖中国的制造业基地开展全球贸易。 Structural Economic Transformation: China’s FDI-driven growth (averaging double-digit GDP increases pre-2010) created a trade surplus and RMB appreciation, attracting speculative financial flows. However, this reliance on foreign capital also exposed vulnerabilities, such as dependency on external demand and challenges in transitioning to a domestically driven, innovation-based economy  结构性经济转型：中国由外商直接投资驱动的增长（2010年之前GDP平均增长率达两位数）创造了贸易顺差和人民币升值，吸引了投机性资金流入。然而，这种对外资的依赖也暴露出一些弱点，例如对外部需求的依赖以及向国内驱动、创新型经济转型过程中的挑战。   Global Power Dynamics: By 2005, China’s real economy (manufacturing output) surpassed the U.S., though the latter retained dominance in virtual capital (e.g., financial markets). This shift fueled narratives of China challenging U.S. hegemony, though the interdependence of their economies complicated such claims 全球权力动态： 到2005年，中国实体经济（制造业产出）已超越美国，但后者在虚拟资本（例如金融市场）领域仍占据主导地位。这一转变助长了中国挑战美国霸权的论调，尽管中美经济的相互依存关系使这种论调变得复杂。 主讲者介绍Speaker introduction Professor Wen Tiejun is a renowned Chinese economist and rural development expert, celebrated for his pioneering work on "Three Rural Issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) and his advocacy for sustainable development in the Global South. A leading scholar at Renmin University of China, he developed the theory of "New Structural Economics," emphasizing localized, pragmatic development strategies over Western models. His research spans: ✔ Rural revitalization & poverty alleviation ✔ Industrial capital & China’s subregional integration ✔ Asia-Africa Continental Bridge as a global development framework ✔ Critique of financial capitalism & alternative pathways for the Global South A vocal proponent of South-South cooperation, Professor Wen argues that developing nations must leverage their own comparative advantages—a vision aligned with China’s "community with a shared future for mankind." His insights draw from China’s transformation from low-income to near high-income status, offering a blueprint for equitable globalization. Key Influence: Advised policymakers on rural reforms and industrial restructuring Framed China’s western development strategy (e.g., Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone) Bridged academic theory with grassroots practice in the developing world 温铁军教授是中国著名的经济学家和农村发展专家，因其在“三农”（农业、农村、农民）问题上的开创性研究以及对全球南方可持续发展的倡导而闻名。作为中国人民大学的领军学者，他创立了“新结构经济学”理论，强调本土化、务实的发展战略，而非西方模式。 他的研究领域涵盖： ✔ 乡村振兴与扶贫 ✔ 产业资本与中国次区域一体化 ✔ 亚非大陆桥作为全球发展框架 ✔ 金融资本主义批判与全球南方的替代路径