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Understanding rates of genetic gain in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench) in the U.S. Singh J.(1), Merchant A.(1), Mayor L.(2), Mbaye M.(3), Hammer G.(4), Gho C.(5), Cooper M.(6), Messina C.(1) 1 Department of Horticultural Sciences, University of Florida 2 Corteva Agriscience 3 ISRA-CERAAS 4 Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, The University of Queensland The loss of agricultural biodiversity will compromise societal ability to proof the food system against short and long term abiotic and biotic perturbations. The steady decrease in planted area of the important staple crop sorghum in the U.S. is alarming. While lower rate of genetic gain in sorghum relative to maize could be due to investment, it is also plausible that sorghum breeding has reached the accessible peak in the adaptation landscape for the germplasm currently used by breeders. To test this hypothesis, we have conducted a breeding gap analysis. CERES-Sorghum was used to run a very large simulation experiment comprised of ~1bn genotype × environment × management combinations for the U.S. sorghum belt. We estimated the 0.99 quantile of the response of yield to evapotranspiration; this boundary defines the biophysical limits to yield based on water availability. The projection of multienvironment trials from various studies onto this yield-trait space indicates that most programs are reaching biophysical boundaries. This result can explain the observed lack of genetic gain. Profiling trait impact on yield across an evapotranspiration gradient suggest opportunities to lift the biophysical front in trait x trait context dependent manner, but more investment in sorghum breeding will be required.