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Update on Global Developments in Nuclear Energy

Presentation by Jack Turner, Global Nuclear Energy Advisory Australian Nuclear Association ANA2024 Conference at UTS Aerial Centre, Ultimo, NSW, on Friday 11 October 2024. Abstract Nuclear energy is increasingly recognised as a vital source of clean and reliable baseload power essential for the global energy transition. Countries worldwide are embracing nuclear energy as a cornerstone of their future decarbonised energy systems. This trend encompasses life extension and refurbishment programs, embarking on newbuild initiatives, and championing advanced nuclear technologies through pilot and demonstration projects. The growing global momentum behind nuclear energy was recently highlighted by the “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy,” announced at the COP28 conference in December 2023. Twenty-two countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan, acknowledged the critical role of nuclear energy in achieving global net-zero targets by 2050 and committed to collaborating towards a goal of tripling global nuclear energy capacity. Significant strides are already being made towards achieving this goal. For instance, the UK's “British Energy Security Strategy” announced in January 2024 aims to deploy up to 24GW of nuclear energy in the UK by 2050, tripling current capacity. In the UAE, plans are currently underway to issue a tender for the construction of a second nuclear power plant, which follows the arrival of commercial operation of the fourth and final unit of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in September 2024. European nations such as the Netherlands and Sweden have signalled their intention to embark on newbuild initiatives, and others, such as Belgium, intend on implementing significant life extension programs for their existing fleets. Arguably, the most notable development in Europe has been in France, where President Emmanuel Macron has proposed constructing up to 14 new reactors, marking a significant policy shift for the country, which had previously aimed to reduce nuclear’s share of electricity generation to 50 percent by 2025. Similar policy shifts are being seen globally, such as in South Korea, which has scrapped its nuclear phase-out plans, and replaced them with a target for nuclear to provide at least 30% of the country’s electricity by 2030. However, perhaps more telling of the unprecedented global support that we are seeing is the growing list of countries embarking on civil nuclear energy programs for the first time. The IAEA reported in its 2023 “Nuclear Technology Review” that 50 of its Member States have shown interest in, or are actively introducing, nuclear energy. Of these 50 Member States, 16 are identified by the IAEA as being in the “decision-making phase” and 10 in the “post-decision-making phase” and include a number of African nations and also countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, and even Central America. Importantly, the IAEA’s list of 50 Member States also includes countries geographically close to Australia, such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh, with Singapore and Vietnam also likely to be added in the future. These countries are working with the IAEA through the “Milestones Approach,” a methodology guiding newcomer countries through three development phases, addressing key infrastructure issues, and achieving milestones to commission and operate their first nuclear power plants. When considered against the evaluation criteria developed by the IAEA within its Milestones Approach, and when compared to the other countries that are seeking to implement a civil nuclear energy program for the first time, Australia, with its extensive experience in the nuclear sector, significant uranium reserves, existing nuclear trade framework, and robust and world-leading institutions in the areas of nuclear security, safeguards, and safety, would be in an enviable position should a decision be made in the future to embark on its own civil nuclear energy program.