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Join this channel to get access to perks: / @marionawfal Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction 02:38 – Historian draws parallels to Korea and Vietnam peace talks 04:23 – Russia has incentives to keep fighting, not negotiate 04:55 – Russia using $30k bonuses to recruit new troops 06:28 – Cracks in the Western alliance while Russia holds economically 07:25 – Are new Lukoil and Rosneft sanctions strong enough 08:38 – Sanctions need time and pressure; only crisis shifts Putin 12:30 – Putin driven by legacy and restoring a Russian empire 14:24 – Multipolar vision requires Ukraine’s resources 16:24 – Real trigger was Ukraine’s 2014 EU Association Agreement 18:28 – Is bombing Ukraine counterproductive to bringing it closer 19:45 – Russia turned Chechnya from rebellion to loyal ally 21:29 – If Ukraine falls, its fighters could become Russian shock troops 24:34 – Putin genuinely believes his historical narrative 26:59 – NATO expansion a concern but not the core trigger 27:31 – West repeatedly said Ukraine had no future in NATO 30:22 – Russia provoking NATO because it knows NATO won’t respond 32:49 – Aid provision is a normal international practice 38:33 – 2008 Bucharest Summit was the real turning point 40:32 – NATO used as an excuse for deeper strategic motives 41:18 – Comparison to Cuba Missile Crisis: missiles near borders 43:13 – West refuses permanent troops in new NATO states 53:12 – NATO won’t be ready to confront Russia until 2029 57:04 – War ends with a sharper, more defiant line 58:31 – War created a stronger Ukrainian national identity 01:03:05 – Putin’s legacy now mixed with declining influence A leaked peace plan is circulating, but according to Serhii, the truth is far more dangerous. He says Putin is not looking for peace. He is buying time, playing history, and pushing a slow, grinding war designed to break Ukraine and split the West. And the stakes are rising on every front. We get into: • Why Putin sees the war as an imperial restoration, not a negotiation • Why slow Russian advances with massive losses still serve his strategy • How sanctions strike hard but need time and discipline to cripple the Kremlin • Why cracks inside the Western alliance are now Putin’s biggest weapon • How Russia keeps its war machine running even as its economy strains • Why Ukraine’s shift toward Europe triggered the conflict long before NATO mattered • Why Russian drones, cyber attacks and provocations are pressure tests on NATO’s red lines • How close the world actually came to nuclear escalation in 2022 • And why the fate of this war will shape Europe’s borders for a generation His warning is blunt. Russia is not negotiating. Russia is maneuvering. And the window to contain this war is shrinking fast. If Ukraine collapses, he says Europe will face a far more aggressive Russia backed by a rising China. If Ukraine holds, the entire balance of power in the West will shift. This is one of the most consequential wars since 1945. And the next decisions will echo for decades. https://marionawfal.com/ / marionawfal / mario-naw. . / marionawfal https://roundtable.club/ Mario Nawfal is the host of the largest show on X (formerly Twitter) with guests including Hunter Biden, Elon Musk, President Bolsonaro, President Novak, PM Imran Khan, RFK Jr, Bill Ackman, Marc Cuban, Marc Andreessen and Tucker Carlson reaching millions of people a week and leading the citizen journalism movement. Mario is also the founder and CEO of IBC group which is the largest incubator in crypto and AI and is one of the leading voices in the industry.