The art and science of uncertainty - with David Spiegelhalter скачать в хорошем качестве

The art and science of uncertainty - with David Spiegelhalter

Renowned statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter explores how we can better deal with risk, uncertainty, luck, chance and ignorance. Watch the Q&A here (exclusively for our Science Supporters):    • Q&A: The art of uncertainty - with Da...   Buy David's book here: https://geni.us/TYELPS This talk was recorded at the Ri on 30 January 2025. We've had to remove some clips from David's talk for copyright reasons - if you'd like to see the full version without ads, you can sign up as a Science Supporter and watch it here:    • The art of uncertainty - with David S...   Life is uncertain. We are all the result of an unforeseen and unforeseeable sequence of small occurrences. But what underlies this fragile chain of events? Is it random or just complex? And what role does luck play in our lives? Uncertainty is a relationship between the observer and an object in the outside world. In the first Discourse of 2025, kickstarting the Discover 200 celebrations, renowned statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter explains how we can express this numerically and then update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Exploring the principles of probability, a field that informs annuities, pandemics and climate change, he will examine the limitations of statistical modelling and ask when we need to have the humility to admit our ignorance. David has spent his career dissecting data in order to help understand uncertainty and assess the chances of what might happen. In this talk, he draws on a wide range of examples to give us a window onto how we can all do this better. --- Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017-2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. --- Subscribe for regular science videos: http://bit.ly/RiSubscRibe The Ri is on Twitter:   / ri_science   and Facebook:   / royalinstitution   and TikTok:   / ri_science   Listen to the Ri podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/sh... Donate to the RI and help us bring you more lectures: https://www.rigb.org/support-us/donat... Our editorial policy: https://www.rigb.org/editing-ri-talks... Subscribe for the latest science videos: http://bit.ly/RiNewsletter Product links on this page may be affiliate links which means it won't cost you any extra but we may earn a small commission if you decide to purchase through the link.