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#profknageshwar #ProfkNageshwaranalysis #mlcnageshwar భారతదేశంలో రియల్ ఎస్టేట్ భవిష్యత్తు ఎలా ఉంటుంది? || How Is Real Estate Future In India? || India’s real growth rate and the forecast Premium Over the next five years, the best that India may hope for is a steady real GDP growth rate of 6.5% The First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Accounts for 2024-25 show a real GDP growth of 6.4% and a nominal GDP growth of 9.7%. These numbers have fallen short of the Reserve Bank of India’s revised growth estimate of 6.6% for real GDP, as in its December 2024 monetary policy statement and 10.5% for nominal GDP growth as in the 2024-25 Union Budget presented in July 2024. The annual growth of 6.4% can be seen as consisting of 6% growth in the first half and 6.7% growth in the second half. There is, thus, a clear improvement expected over the Q2 growth of 5.4%. The sharp fall in 2024-25 annual GDP growth from that of the previous year at 8.2% is seen only in the case of GDP. With respect to Gross Value Added (GVA), this difference, between 7.2% and 6.4%, is much less. On the GVA side, it was the manufacturing sector which suffered a sharp fall in sectoral growth from 9.9% in 2023-24 to 5.3% in 2024-25. Growth prospects for 2025-26 The Gross Fixed Capital Formation rate at constant prices has ranged between 33.3% and 33.5% during 2021-22 to 2024-25. Thus, it appears to have stabilised around 33.4%. It is expected to continue at this level in 2025-26. The average Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) has been marginally higher than 5 in recent years. Assuming ICOR to be 5.1 in 2025-26, we may consider a 6.5% real GDP growth to be realistic. There may not be much change in the global economy even though Donald Trump’s assumption of office may create more uncertainty. India will have to largely depend on domestic demand. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...