Why Ex-Goldman Insider Says Commodity Prices Won’t Fall for 10 Years скачать в хорошем качестве

Why Ex-Goldman Insider Says Commodity Prices Won’t Fall for 10 Years

When Jeff Currie—formerly Goldman Sachs' top commodity strategist, now at Carlyle Group—forecasts a decade-long commodity supercycle, financial markets respond with enthusiasm. Institutional investors see diversification, alpha, inflation protection. But the same structural forces driving copper, oil, and wheat prices higher for years aren't creating wealth—they're redistributing it. Upward. Violently. This video examines the divergence between Wall Street's "bull market" narrative and the macroeconomic reality: sustained high commodity prices function as a regressive tax on households, compress industrial margins, and historically precede political instability rather than prosperity. The thesis rests on three converging forces—chronic underinvestment in extraction since the 2014 oil collapse, massive raw-material demands from the energy transition, and geopolitical fragmentation that removes deflationary pressure from supply chains. We explore the mechanisms beneath the headlines: why it takes 10–15 years to bring a new copper mine online even if capital returns today, how decarbonization mandates create "greenflation," and why central banks measuring "core inflation" (excluding food and energy) creates a credibility gap with citizens whose lives revolve around those exact costs. The Green Paradox becomes visible: efforts to save the climate require mining, which is carbon-intensive and ecologically destructive, yet Western nations demand the minerals while refusing to permit the mines on their own soil. The historical parallel is exact. The 1970s featured loose monetary policy, oil embargoes, and inflation that resisted central bank intervention for years—ending not in adjustment but in political upheaval and the dismantling of the post-war social contract. The difference today is that supply constraints aren't temporary geopolitical accidents—they're structural realities built into the energy transition itself. We engage the strongest counterarguments fairly: the technology-as-deflation thesis from ARK Invest, the China demand collapse scenario, and the substitution effect documented by the IEA. Each has merit. But betting against scarcity when inventories are at historic lows, capital has been suppressed for a decade, and friend-shoring is accelerating—that's not analysis. That's hope. The real-world implications are specific: Saudi Aramco and BHP capture windfall profits while Egyptian bread subsidies consume 10% of the national budget. Pension funds see returns while families choose between heating and eating. Tesla faces margin compression while farmers in Saskatchewan watch fertilizer costs destroy profitability. What Wall Street calls a cycle, households experience as erosion. When inflation becomes permanent for people who can least afford it and temporary for markets that benefit from it, the gap between financial optimism and lived reality becomes unsustainable. Jeff Currie is right about the supercycle. He's just wrong about what it means. #CommoditySupercycle #JeffCurrie #EnergyTransition #Greenflation #PoliticalEconomy #ResourceScarcity #Deglobalization #RegressiveTaxation #1970sInflation #CentralBankPolicy #ClimatePolicy #GreenParadox #GeopoliticalFragmentation #WallStreet #GlobalInstability