TREADS Annual Lecture 2nd Edition: The Shifting Logic of the Indus Waters Treaty скачать в хорошем качестве

TREADS Annual Lecture 2nd Edition: The Shifting Logic of the Indus Waters Treaty

Speaker: Dr. Uttam K. Sinha, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) Discussant: Amb. Ashok K. Kantha, Former Ambassador of India to the People's Republic of China, Sri Lanka and Malaysia, and Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) Moderator: Dr. Srinivas Chokkakula, President and Chief Executive, CPR About the lecture The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 remains one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of international water diplomacy. Brokered by the World Bank, it institutionalised the division of the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan, embodying the belief that technical cooperation could transcend political rivalry. Yet, more than six decades later, this celebrated resilience is being tested by a volatile geopolitical environment. The central question today is not merely whether the Treaty can adapt to hydrological and environmental transformations — but whether it can withstand the weight of politics that increasingly defines India – Pakistan relations. This lecture examines the shifting logic of the Indus Waters Treaty — from an era when hydrology took precedence over politics to one where politics dominates the hydrological discourse. Conceived as a technical arrangement insulated from conflict, the Treaty’s implementation has nonetheless mirrored the fluctuating tenor of bilateral relations. India’s recent abeyance of the IWT framework represents not only a procedural rupture but a strategic assertion that water is inseparable from national security and foreign policy. Conversely, Pakistan’s continued portrayal of the Treaty as a legal and moral safeguard reflects its deep existential dependence on the Indus system. Cooperation today is constrained not by engineering limits but by the erosion of political trust. The lecture also examines how climate change and demographic pressures have heightened the fragility of the Indus regime. Altered river flows, glacial retreat, and extreme weather now demand flexible, adaptive governance — yet in the absence of political will, even the most advanced technical or institutional reforms cannot revive the cooperative spirit essential for basin-wide management. Ultimately, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty will rest not on engineering prowess or legal reinterpretation, but on political imagination — the willingness of India and Pakistan to decouple water from competitive nationalism and resource-driven assertiveness. Until that shift occurs, the Indus will continue to flow through a divided geography and a divided politics, defined less by collaboration than by contention. About the speaker Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha is a leading voice on transboundary water governance, climate change, and Arctic geopolitics. He joined the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (now Manohar Parrikar-IDSA) in 2001. As a Senior Fellow, he leads the Centre for Non-Traditional Security and serves as Managing Editor of Strategic Analysis, the institute’s flagship journal published by Routledge. Over the years, he has held prestigious fellowships and leadership positions, including as Senior Fellow at the Prime Minister's Museum and Library (2018–2020), Academic Visitor at the Harvard Kennedy School (2015), Chevening Gurukul Fellow at LSE (2008), and Visiting Fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (2006). Among his many publications, he is the author of Trial By Water: Indus Basin and India-Pakistan Relations (Penguin Random House, 2025) and the widely acclaimed Indus Basin Interrupted: A History of Territory and Politics from Alexander to Nehru (Penguin Random House, 2021). He recently co-edited a special issue for Strategic Analysis (Routledge), Changing Dynamics in the Arctic: Actors and Alliances, Vol. 48(6), 2024. He writes regularly for The Times of India and The Indian Express.