Fooled by Randomness (HINDI/हिंदी में) скачать в хорошем качестве

Fooled by Randomness (HINDI/हिंदी में)

1. If the past, by bringing surprises, did not resemble its own past, why expect the future to resemble today? 2. Those unlucky in life despite skill will rise; the lucky fool drifts back to being an ordinary idiot. 3. Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette; it numbs us with false security between shots. 4. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor; wild success is attributable to variance. 5. People do not realize the media is paid to get your attention; silence rarely beats any word. 6. The epiphany of randomness is seeing I am not intelligent enough to outwit my emotions. 7. A mistake must be judged by information available at the time, not by later outcomes. 8. Probability is not merely computing odds; it is learning to live with our ignorance. 9. Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost. 10. People overvalue their knowledge and underestimate the probability of being wrong. 11. Wittgenstein's ruler: measure a ruler's reliability before trusting its measures. 12. My principal activity is to tease those who take their knowledge too seriously. 13. It takes bravery to remain skeptical and courage to confront one's own limits. 14. We favor the visible, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract. 15. One cannot judge performance by results, but by the cost of alternatives. 16. Common sense is merely a bundle of misconceptions acquired by eighteen. 17. Visible winners dazzle us; silent failures fill an unseen graveyard. 18. The only article Lady Fortuna has no control over is your behavior. 19. Too much success is the enemy; too much failure is demoralizing. 20. We are probability-blind: our brains dislike thinking in odds. 21. Real risk hides in the rear-view mirror, not in the forecast. 22. The wise man listens to meaning; the fool hears only noise. 23. This high-yield market resembles a nap on a railway track. 24. Our emotional apparatus is designed for linear causality. 25. When things go our way we reject the lack of certainty. 26. We instinctively weave causal links where none exist. 27. The cemetery of history is full of indispensable men. 28. Learn to fail with pride—and do it fast and cleanly. 29. Past events always look less random than they were. 30. If I must eat pork, it better be of the best kind. 31. Better to be broadly right than precisely wrong. 32. Skewness matters more than average or variance. 33. Luck favors the prepared, but bites the sure. 34. Randomness disguises itself in routine. 35. Noise is information we don't need. 36. Luck is more potent than logic. 37. Risk equals exposure to ruin. 38. Survival beats performance. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:56 Preface 00:23:09 Acknowledgments 00:30:04 Chapter Summaries 00:37:20 Prologue 00:49:56 Part I — Solon’s Warning 00:54:36 Chapter 1 “If You’re So Rich, Why Aren’t You So Smart?” 01:36:02 Chapter 2 A Bizarre Accounting Method 02:16:51 Chapter 3 A Mathematical Meditation on History 02:54:37 Chapter 4 Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual 03:21:23 Chapter 5 Survival of the Least Fit—Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness? 03:59:35 Chapter 6 Skewness and Asymmetry 04:37:03 Chapter 7 The Problem of Induction 05:11:34 Part II — Monkeys on Typewriters 05:16:53 Chapter 8 Too Many Millionaires Next Door 05:36:33 Chapter 9 It Is Easier to Buy and Sell Than Fry an Egg 06:23:11 Chapter 10 Loser Takes All—On the Non-linearities of Life 06:44:07 Chapter 11 Randomness and Our Mind: We Are Probability-Blind 08:06:12 Part III — Wax in My Ears 08:17:50 Chapter 12 Gamblers’ Ticks and Pigeons in a Box 08:36:15 Chapter 13 Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and Skepticism 09:00:21 Chapter 14 Bacchus Abandons Antony 09:11:02 Epilogue — Solon Told You So