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What if a company pulling in over $130 million in revenue each quarter is being priced like it is on the verge of bankruptcy? This video unpacks the Offerpad paradox, showing how a dramatic shift in unit economics turned a shrinking top line into much higher contribution profit per home, and how management is pivoting to an asset-light model centered on Offerpad Renovate, Direct Plus, and agent partnerships. Extreme cost cuts bought time, but the story only works if the new services scale. I walk through the exact math behind three scenarios, explain why our probability-weighted five-year target is $4.89, and spell out the three existential risks, including NYSE delisting, heavy leverage, and inventory write-downs. This is a binary, high-risk turnaround, not a sure thing. Valuation paradox and iBuying failures Contribution profit per home jumped to ~$8,200 Asset-light services and $4.89 blended target Main risks: delisting, debt, pricing shocks If this helped, subscribe and share your take on OPAD below. #Offerpad #Investing