Jan van Eck: Q4 Macro & Market Outlook скачать в хорошем качестве

Jan van Eck: Q4 Macro & Market Outlook

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com When market uncertainty is as high as it is now, I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. As we've done the past several quarters now, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his Q4 macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. #goldprice #ai #china 0:00 - Macro Mood: "Happy with Eyes Wide Open" 4:11 - Four Big Global Trends (Fiscal Deficit, AI, India, Deregulation) 5:01 - Quick Macro Summary: Deficit Improving, AI Boosting Mega Caps 7:02 - AI Deep Dive: What's Really Driving Demand? 7:24 - "Crazy Mainframe Math": Exploding Token Demand 9:03 - Explaining Tokens: Units of AI Compute (Not Just Queries) 10:37 - LLMs Reasoning & Software as New Demand Source 12:42 - Hardware Efficiency: Nvidia's 90% Annual Cost Drops 14:28 - Software Efficiency: LLM Costs Plummeting 16:16 - Nvidia's Compute Lockdown Frenzy & Valuation Case 20:23 - Key Watch: Token Demand as AI Pulse 21:16 - AI Value Beyond Nvidia: Consumer Interfaces & Revenue 23:16 - Energy Boom: Nuclear Stocks Up 90%, Oklo x7 24:24 - Rising Electricity Costs: Regressive Impact on Low-Income 25:09 - Energy Demand vs. Efficiency Gains 26:48 - Politics: Post-COVID Sentiment & Pocketbook Pain 27:20 - Victory Lap: Uranium ETF Up 76% Since Last Quarter 28:20 - OpenAI as "MAG8": Fastest User Adoption 29:43 - ChatGPT Traffic Surge vs. Google, YouTube, Meta 34:08 - Shopping Wars: OpenAI + Shopify vs. Amazon 35:41 - Commercial Wins: OpenAI Leads via Microsoft Deal 36:52 - Switching Costs & Why Not Winner-Take-All? 37:21 - MAG7 Earnings Explosion: Straight Line Up 38:19 - Underestimated Compute Shortage Fuels Next 2 Years 39:30 - OpenAI's Revenue Gap: The Real AI Risk 41:32 - Gaming as Emerging AI Winner: Take-Private Signals 43:02 - AI Takeaways: Tokens, OpenAI Financing, Compute Crunch 44:43 - Broader Earnings: Small Caps Could Catch Up in 2026 46:05 - Gold at All-Time Highs: $4,000/Oz Breakdown 48:42 - Inflation Risk: Fed Cuts into Strong Economy? 50:08 - Central Banks: Shift from Treasuries to Gold 52:21 - US Investors: Still Ignoring Gold Despite Surge 54:44 - Gold Pullback Possible: Buy the Dip? 55:45 - Private Credit: Opacity & Recent Defaults 56:55 - Ares Stock Drop & BDC Discounts as "Escape Valve" 59:58 - BDCs Opportunity: Discounts Could Hit 20-25% 1:02:23 - Private Credit Risks: Looser Standards & Contagion? 1:05:23 - Main Topics Recap: AI, Gold, Credit Watches 1:06:02 - Speed Round: Questioning the 60/40 Model 1:07:32 - Bond Returns Reality: Yield Greater Than Appreciation 1:09:21 - Alibaba AI Edge: China's Cheap Electricity Advantage 1:11:45 - Budget Deficit Improves: 5.9% of GDP (Down from 6.4%) 1:14:15 - Celebrating Deficit Wins: Tariffs Offset Spending 1:16:47 - India Update: Structural Reforms Fuel Growth 1:18:33 - Prediction: US-India 15% Tariff Deal Next Month _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance. Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC. Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.