OII Halloween Lecture 2025. Bayes vs. the Invaders (Revivified) скачать в хорошем качестве

OII Halloween Lecture 2025. Bayes vs. the Invaders (Revivified)

The 2025 OII Halloween Lecture "Bayes vs. the Invaders (Revivified): A Bayesian Analysis of 70 Years of UFO Sightings" with Prof Joss Wright. The searing heat of summer retreats, cools, fades, surrendering its vitality to the flickering uncertainties of autumn. Nights draw close, like dimly-remembered friends clustering in our dreams. The spring leaves abandon their verdant dance, as they age, wither, and drift into a russet swirl of skeletal, wind-stirred fragments. The dying seasons return, dragging with them time-hallowed fears and uneasy rumours, pooling around these darkly dreaming spires in a mire of primal superstition. The agonizingly brittle certainties of the modern enlightenment, our desperate faith in the gossamer fabrics of scientific progress, falter in the face of primal terrors that lurk implacably in the gloom. In these darkening days, as faith in our treasured understanding dims, it is yet again time to turn our faces fully to the darkness. Halloween, slouching inexorably towards our minds, impels us as scholars to gather our methods, our theories, our data, our knowledge; and glean what light we can from the primordial glimmers of the unknown. Unidentifiable aerial and marine phenomena. Impossible lights in the sky. Patterns of visitation and terror. Insidious influences from the hadal voids between the stars. Who--what--swoop and glide through the ink-black nights of our world, probing and testing our structures, our societies, our minds? From barely remembered history, to early reports of impossible objects, to blurrily evidenced documentation, data concerning flying arcane observations has grown and twisted, along with our capacity to lay them bare, to subject them to analysis, and to interrogate their secrets. In this year's OII Halloween Lecture, we will tremblingly revisit a Bayesian analysis of seventy years of UFO sightings, drawn from a dataset collected by the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC). Scepticism, fear, doubt, and most accepted standards of statistical rigour, will be cast aside in our unyielding and disquieting pursuit of an uncompromised truth. Following the lecture, any scholars of the paranormal incautious enough to risk further tearing the veil of our fragile reality are invited to a nearby pub to inaugurate their ill-advised descent into unfathomable horror and night.