Top three political realities of the Iran nuclear deal скачать в хорошем качестве

Top three political realities of the Iran nuclear deal

Congress fought and won a bruising legislative battle in order to ensure its right to review the Iran nuclear deal. But what should they do with it now? Will critics on the Hill be able to score a veto proof majority on legislation rejecting the deal? AEI Senior Fellow John R. Bolton explains the top three political realities that Congress is facing during its 60-day review period of the Iran nuclear deal. More information http://www.aei.org/publication/debati... https://www.aei.org/publication/the-i... Watch other videos about the Middle East    • How Yemen could become another Syria   Subscribe to AEI's YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/user/AEIVideo... Like us on Facebook   / aeionline   Follow us on Twitter   / aei   For more information http://www.aei.org Music "Clean Science" by Paul Lawler Transcript I think the Iranians are already violating the Vienna agreement. I think that was perfectly predictable. In fact, it was predicted. I don't think there's any evidence whatever they've made a strategic decision to give up their quest for deliverable nuclear weapons. The idea of the negotiations themselves was basically flawed. And that whatever possibility there was of using the coercive power of sanctions along with diplomacy was lost about 10 or 12 years ago. So I think inevitably the most likely result now, absent the use of military force, is that Iran is going to get nuclear weapons pretty much at a time of its choosing. I think that Congress will reject the deal by a simple majority. Whether there's a veto override majority is open to question. Ultimately, I'll predict now that there will not be enough votes to override the president's veto. Rather, I think he will invoke party unity. He'll say that if he loses on this vote, he'll be a lame duck for the rest of his presidency. In effect the president will be able to claim a political victory. Although, I think substantively he's definitely losing the policy arguments. And as far as foreign policy that might occur under a future Republican president, I think you can expect the same pattern in reverse—very few Democrats supporting it. The Senate has been throwing away its treaty powers for the last 100 years. This Vienna deal could rise to the level of a treaty but the fact is since 1945, 90% of all U.S. international agreements have been in one form or another of executive agreement. Only 10% have been treaties. So were the Senate to decide it wanted to act as though this were a treaty, it would have to find some mechanism to force the president to submit the document as such, which it has not done. The Senate can't approve a treaty it doesn't have. And it can't reject a treaty it doesn't have. So the Senate would need to stand up and, for example, eliminate the State Department's appropriation, refuse to confirm any administration nominees, or take action that's appropriate for the legislature to try and get the administration to back down and submit the Vienna deal as a treaty. I don't see any stomach for it in the Senate, so it will be one more example of the Senate not asserting what many believe to be its constitutional authority. Top three political realities of the Iran nuclear deal