Four Years of War: Europe, Russia, and the Question of Normalization скачать в хорошем качестве

Four Years of War: Europe, Russia, and the Question of Normalization

John Lough Europe is highly unlikely to normalize relations with Russia without a material change in Moscow’s foreign and security policy. This would include flexibility on Ukraine, potential reparations, and the deeply sensitive issue of war crimes. At the same time, a generational transition in Russian leadership appears inevitable. President Putin is 72, and many key figures around him are of a similar age. A new leadership may be less personally fixated on Ukraine and more interested in restoring relations with Europe. Yet one fundamental issue may remain unresolved. Russia’s belief in its right to a “zone of influence” beyond its borders — and its willingness to pressure or coerce neighboring states — lies at the core of the war against Ukraine. This analytical fragment explores: Whether leadership change in Russia would alter strategic priorities Europe’s potential leverage in a post-Putin scenario The role of reparations and war crimes in future normalization Why the concept of a sphere of influence remains the structural root of the conflict This lecture is part of the ICEUR School of Political Forecasting course “War in Ukraine.” 🔗 ICEUR online: Home: https://iceur-school.at/ Telegram: https://t.me/schooliceur Instagram:   / iceur_school   Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?... LinkedIn:   / iceur-school-of-political-forecasting-7059...