Key Discoveries and Potential for Namibian Oil and Gas by Dr Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila скачать в хорошем качестве

Key Discoveries and Potential for Namibian Oil and Gas by Dr Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila

Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila's projection for Namibia’s projected status as a top-15 oil producer by 2035 is based on significant offshore discoveries in the Orange Basin. As of February 2026, major operators like TotalEnergies and Shell are advancing these projects toward critical production milestones. Key Discoveries and Potential The "top 15" ranking is linked to the combined potential of several major finds: • Venus (PEL 56): Operated by TotalEnergies, this is considered the second-largest deep-water discovery globally since 2015. It is estimated to hold several billion barrels of oil. • Graff (PEL 39): Discovered by Shell, this light crude find, along with the Jonker field, has established the Orange Basin as a world-class frontier. • Mopane: A more recent find by Galp Energia that further confirms the basin's massive scale, with some estimates suggesting up to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Economic Transformation Timeline While the potential is vast, the economic impact is expected to unfold in stages: • Final Investment Decision (FID): Major projects, particularly Venus, are targeting an FID in 2026. • First Oil: Production is currently projected to begin between 2029 and 2030. • Revenue Peak: Significant government revenue is not expected until approximately five years after first oil (around 2035), as companies must first recoup initial multi-billion dollar investments. Projected Impacts • GDP Growth: At peak production, the oil sector could contribute between 13% and 18% to Namibia's national GDP. • Revenue Generation: Estimates suggest these discoveries could eventually add up to US$5.6 billion (approx. N$100+ billion) annually to state revenues. • Job Creation: The projects are expected to create roughly 4,200 direct jobs at peak, with broader estimates suggesting up to 7,000 total jobs, including indirect and induced employment. The Namibian government is currently developing a Local Content Policy and a progressive tax regime to ensure these resources benefit the local economy through infrastructure, education, and energy diversification.