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Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sb See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan... CONTACT LEX: Feedback - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact EPISODE LINKS: Dylan's X: https://x.com/dylan522p SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/ Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert Nathan's Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/ Nathan's Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast Nathan's Website: https://www.natolambert.com/ Nathan's YouTube: / @natolambert Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com/ SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Invideo AI: AI video generator. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep... GitHub: Developer platform and AI code editor. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sb Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep45... NetSuite: Business management software. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep4... AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sb OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3 25:07 - Low cost of training 51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster 58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China 1:09:16 - AGI timeline 1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity 1:26:36 - Cold war with China 1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan 1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI 2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap 2:22:55 - Espionage 2:31:57 - Censorship 2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL 2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1 3:14:31 - NVIDIA 3:18:58 - GPU smuggling 3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data 3:36:04 - AI megaclusters 4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI? 4:21:39 - AI agents 4:30:21 - Programming and AI 4:37:49 - Open source 4:47:01 - Stargate 4:54:30 - Future of AI PODCAST LINKS: Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ Podcast Playlist: • Lex Fridman Podcast Clips Channel: / lexclips SOCIAL LINKS: X: https://x.com/lexfridman Instagram: / lexfridman TikTok: / lexfridman LinkedIn: / lexfridman Facebook: / lexfridman Patreon: / lexfridman Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman Reddit: / lexfridman