The REAL Max Withdrawal Rate for a 40 Year Retirement скачать в хорошем качестве

The REAL Max Withdrawal Rate for a 40 Year Retirement

If you’re 50+ and you’ve saved $1 million+ for retirement, you’ve probably heard the “4% rule”… but what if the real question isn’t: “How do I avoid running out of money?” …but instead: “How much can I safely spend?” In this video, I run the opposite of last week’s retirement backtest. Instead of trying to die with the biggest portfolio balance, I test a “maximum spending” retirement plan to answer: ✅ What was the safe maximum withdrawal rate over the last 40 years? ✅ How much could a retiree have spent if they retired into a long bull run? ✅ What should you do if your portfolio grows faster than expected? What we tested (1986–2025 backtest) To stress-test real retirement spending, I ran inflation-adjusted withdrawals at: • 5% • 6% • 7% • 8% • (and then solved for the “safe max”) Using two diversified portfolios: 📈 85/15 (aggressive: 85% stocks / 15% bonds) ⚖️ 60/40 (traditional balanced portfolio) This helps illustrate how risk, volatility, and sequence-of-returns can impact your ability to spend confidently, especially if you’re targeting a 30–40 year retirement. The big takeaway Over this specific 40-year period, the safe max withdrawal rate on the 85/15 portfolio came out to roughly 8.5%+ (inflation-adjusted), if your goal is to spend the most and end near zero. That doesn’t mean 8.5% is always safe (timing matters a LOT)… but it does show why blindly following the 4% rule can cause retirees to underspend and leave behind far more than they intended. If you retire into a bull market If your portfolio takes off early in retirement (think long bull run), here are five ways to pivot: 1. Give yourself raises beyond inflation (using guardrails / prosperity rule) 2. Improve tax efficiency (Roth conversions, legacy tax planning) 3. Consider reducing portfolio risk after “winning the game” 4. Increase charitable giving (including QCDs after age 70½) 5. Have 'the talk' with your beneficiaries I hope you find this video helpful! Are you interested in learning more about working with me on your retirement plan? You can start with visiting my firm's website at https://imaginefinancialsecurity.com/ Or, you can fill out our Retirement Readiness Questionnaire: https://imaginefinancialsecurity.com/... I look forward to hearing from you and seeing how we can help fire your boss, maximize retirement impact, minimize your lifetime tax bill, and worry less about money. -Kevin This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice