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Since 2022, China has conducted numerous military drills and exercises simulating blockades of the island of Taiwan, a democracy of 23 million that sits astride one of the world's maritime chokepoints. What would happen if China initiated a blockade of Taiwan in the coming years? To understand the military challenges in countering a blockade, CSIS ran 26 wargames using a wide variety of scenarios. Although China could inflict serious hardships, particularly by targeting Taiwan's energy sector, this wouldn't be a low-risk, low-cost option for Beijing. Any blockade creates escalatory pressures that are difficult to contain and could lead to a large-scale war. Building on existing preparations, Taiwan and the United States could strengthen deterrence by demonstrating that a blockade is not feasible. This report is funded by a grant from the Smith-Richardson Foundation with assistance from the Diane Davis Spencer Foundation. --------------------------------------------- A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world. Visit www.csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world's greatest challenges. Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve Follow CSIS on: • Twitter: www.twitter.com/csis • Facebook: www.facebook.com/CSIS.org • Instagram: www.instagram.com/csis/