Housing Crisis Or Population Crisis? скачать в хорошем качестве

Housing Crisis Or Population Crisis?

The ABS released the latest Australian net long term and permanent arrivals data for November and revealed the highest level ever for that particular month. Net arrivals for the month are up 3.8% compared with this time last year and up 78.7% vs this time in 2019. So my question today is, does Australia have a housing crisis or a population crisis? Most agree we are in a housing affordability crisis. As I highlighted yesterday, interest rates are likely to turn higher in the months ahead, and the ratio of mortgages to income is often in the eight range. Unaffordable housing spills over in to the rental sector, where we find three quarters of renters have cash flow pressures. It’s a mess. The official line is this has been caused by a lack of supply of new homes, despite the inconvenient truth that on a per capita basis we are building more homes than most other western countries. In addition, the lack of supply is sheeted at poor planning, slow approvals and high construction costs, with more construction firms going out of business. The response from Government has been incentivise states to approve more high-rise builds, and to push for planning reforms, including smaller lots, less need to incorporate garage spaces and even removal of minimum access to natural light. Despite all the spin, we are still well below the 1.2 million new homes target the Government has set. But the housing crisis is not really a supply side issue. It is demand led. The demand for property has been stoked by investor who get significant tax and capital gain benefits from investing, even when more than half of property investments are under water on a cash flow basis. We are seeing a rise in rent-vesting, where people decide to buy a place for investment purposes as a priority, hoping for good investment returns. Actually, though if you do the calculations currently investment property returns are below other investment asset classes, and they are both illiquid investments and carry high switching costs. Government meantime continues to dodge the core question of the need to reform the tac and capital gains breaks. The truth is Government has outsourced the provision of rental housing almost exclusively to the private sector, from mum and dad investors through to the new wave of build to rent investment powered by international corporations, who now benefit from generous additional tax breaks. Demand is also driven by mortgage lending, as the banks now consider a normal household income to be two full time incomes, and they are prepared to lend for a longer term, and on interest only terms. This has powered home prices higher, and the new APRA guidelines coming in shortly will have only a small impact. Banks in Australia are predominately big building societies, while mortgage lending continues to boom, lending for small business is crushed. But the third demand lever is that of population growth. Natural birth rates in Australia have slowed, but migration into Australia remains red hot. And more people in the country means more tax paid, and economic activity, so what is there not to like? Indeed today we got the latest ABS data series on Overseas Arrivals and Departures for Australia to November 2025. No surprise then that according to a recent poll, 64% of Australians want migration paused until the housing crisis is resolved. Another pol, from Resolve showed 58% of Australians support a "significant reduction" in migration levels. Of those with an opinion, those in favour of a cut outnumber those opposing a cut by almost 4 to 1. If you want to solve the housing crisis, tackle migration. Simple. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/b... Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/b... where you can subscribe to our research alerts Please consider supporting our work via Patreon:   / digitalfinanceanalytics   The full detailed set of post code data is available as a subscription service. Or make a one-off contribution to help cover our costs via PayPal at: https://www.paypal.me/MartinDFA We also can receive bitcoins at: 13zBL1oRib9VJu8Uc9zUGNhxKDBBgUpDN1 Please share this post to help to spread the word about the state of things.... Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!! 🚨BEWARE OF SCAMMERS🚨 As there are accounts impersonating Walk The World in the comments on YouTube, note that our comments will have a distinguishable verified symbol. And remember that we will never message you asking you to give us money or talk to us on other platforms such as WhatsApp or Telegram