The math that powers collective intelligence: the diversity theorem скачать в хорошем качестве

The math that powers collective intelligence: the diversity theorem

"Collective intelligence is about using other people's stupidity to compensate for your own" There's a puzzling little equation you've never heard of that can drastically increase your team's IQ, and help society get smarter together. It's like the e=mc² of collective intelligence. Discovered by professor Scott Page, the "Diversity Theorem" looks complicated but says something profound and simple: The more you increase a group's diversity of thinking, the better it becomes at guessing things and solving problems. Yes, expertise counts, of course. But it only counts as much as diversity. It's inspired countless research, like Christian Wilhelm's PhD because it's an easy way to make your team smarter. We use the diversity theorem every time our crowd of forecasters tries to guesstimate the likelihood of an event. And it works ! Combining the diverging opinions of a crowd of public health experts was excellent at predicting the number of cases for Covid, malaria, dengue and other infectious diseases. How well ? The crowd as a whole made better forecasts (closer to the truth) than every single individual within the crowd - even experts on virology, statistics, public policy and doctors. So if you're facing a problem that can't be mastered by a single person, remember: • You'll benefit as much by looking for expert opinions as by consulting different and complementary opinions. • If there are no experts, go look for many diverse minds • Combine these diverging opinions by voting (democracy), or averaging estimates (crowd forecasting) • Or even better, if you know who has a good track record, perform a weighted average of different forecasts This is what Hypermind's crowd forecasting platform does for you: it keeps track of individual performance and adjusts the weight of each forecaster in the combined crowd forecast, to make it as smart as possible. Check out the full interview of cognitive scientist Emile SErvan-Schreiber on the "Can I get that software in blue ?" podcast:    • Episode 19 | Dr. Emile Servan-Schreiber, M...