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Labour has suffered a historic defeat in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, losing a seat it had held for over a century. Plaid Cymru secured a decisive victory, with Lindsay Whittle winning 15,961 votes, compared to Labour’s collapse to just 3,713. Reform UK also made significant gains, rising from 2 per cent to 36 per cent of the vote, although it narrowly missed out on the seat. The result marks a major blow for Sir Keir Starmer and signals waning support for Labour in its traditional Welsh heartlands. The turnout for the by-election reached 50.4 per cent, the highest ever for a Welsh by-election, highlighting strong voter engagement. Plaid Cymru now holds 13 seats in the Senedd, just one fewer than the Tories, while Labour’s reduced count of 29 seats puts its working majority under pressure. Party leaders acknowledged the result as a wake-up call, with Welsh Labour promising to learn from the outcome, and Plaid Cymru celebrating a “new dawn” for Welsh politics. The loss reflects broader shifts in Welsh political sentiment, with Reform UK gaining ground and Labour’s support declining sharply. Recent polls indicate Labour trailing both Plaid Cymru and Reform in prospective Senedd elections, raising concerns about the party’s prospects in next year’s vote. Analysts suggest that tactical voting and voter frustration with the pace of change contributed to the outcome, signalling a potentially transformative period for Welsh politics ahead. Ian Collins interviews Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, Patrick English; former Labour MP and now Reform member Simon Danczuk; and Labour Councillor (Waltham Forest) Sebastian Salek. #labour #reform #starmer Have you got a story? Email [email protected] Click here for more from Talk https://talk.tv If you need any help visit: https://talk.tv/helplines