NFL Week 12 - RJ Bell Best Bet !! скачать в хорошем качестве

NFL Week 12 - RJ Bell Best Bet !!

(0:00-0:09) RJ Bell begins by announcing his Week 12 best bet: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 against Kansas City, noting how people overreact to perception rather than data. (0:09-0:12) Fezzik jokes it’s a great teaser side, and RJ presses him on where KC sits in his power ratings. (0:14-0:33) Fezzik says he has a five-way tie for first and KC is among them, though he adds no team is particularly good this season. RJ disputes that KC would be pick-em on a neutral against the Rams, leading into a long evaluation of KC’s actual performance. (0:34-1:03) RJ argues Indy is still undervalued despite Vegas-based rankings placing them around eighth; Fezzik has them seventh and only a point behind the league’s top team, which already contradicts the market implying KC is multiple points better. (1:13-1:46) They assess home-field advantage, weather, and prior Indy road struggles. McKenzie reports KC’s weather will be 61 degrees, removing weather as a concern. (2:08-2:48) RJ highlights yards-per-play differential: Colts +1.3 vs KC +0.4, a massive statistical edge rarely seen between a dog and favorite. Fezzik notes KC typically sits around +0.4 in most seasons but agrees the numbers support Indy. (3:24-4:40) RJ explains KC’s defensive trend has sharply declined since Week 5, contradicting the early-season narrative that the defense would carry them. They emphasize KC couldn’t run against Buffalo and Mahomes oddly refused to run himself, hinting at a possible injury. (4:49-5:06) The crew remarks how common it is for quarterbacks to hide injuries, pointing to other players who stopped running due to undisclosed issues. (5:06-6:03) RJ works through what the line implies: with home field around +2 and the cost of going through 3, the market effectively prices KC roughly three points better than Indy. Their power ratings don’t come close to that number. (6:05-6:26) Fezzik’s ratings put KC +1 over Indy, consensus ratings say +2, still well short of the implied value. (6:27-7:05) RJ questions how long Mahomes should get credit for previous dominance, arguing his recent-year play makes him “good, not godlike.” They compare present-day QB play: Stafford and Josh Allen are performing better right now. (7:17-8:26) They debate MVP odds: Stafford +135, Drake Maye +185, Josh Allen +475, and Jonathan Taylor 8-1 though they think he should be 80-1. They lay out scenarios where RBs could win if top QBs stumble late. (9:03-10:23) RJ details how legacy bias inflates KC-related power ratings and points to past Mahomes mistakes, including the infamous Cincinnati turnover sequence that swung a playoff game. He notes several analysts have observed Mahomes making uncharacteristic bad reads. (10:23-11:13) RJ stresses he is not criticizing Mahomes overall but insisting he isn’t playing at the level people still assume. (11:14-12:34) He introduces a win-probability-per-snap metric: Rams 74%, Seattle 62%, Colts 61%, KC just 43%. Fezzik says this matches their record profile and further undermines the idea that KC is elite. (12:46-14:36) They note only a handful of teams exceed 50% average win probability: Rams, Seattle, Indy, Philly, New England, Green Bay, Jacksonville. Buffalo sits around 51, Denver at 46, and others much lower. They explore distribution anomalies caused by very bad teams like the Jets, Titans, and Raiders dragging averages down. (14:37-14:57) They note Denver’s “they could be undefeated” narrative is false given their in-game win-probability data. (14:58-15:22) Fezzik notes the “must-win tax” pushes KC’s line higher than justified. RJ says he’s laying out the entire case so bettors can see KC is priced on reputation, not performance. (15:22-16:13) Yards-per-play revisited: KC +27 yards vs Indy +80, translating to Indy being roughly two points better. RJ asks Fezzik who he’d play at +3; Fezzik says Colts. (16:14-17:07) RJ reminds that moving from +3 to +3.5 adds ~20 cents of value, enough to make the play profitable, and closes emphatically: best bet Colts +3.5, supported by multiple independent metrics showing parity or Colts superiority. 📱 LET'S CONNECT: ==================== ✉️ $25 of Free Picks! https://pregame.com/gate/router.aspx?... No Obligation | No Credit Card Required Becoming a member is Fast and Free #NFLWeek12 #RJBestBet #ColtsVsChiefs #SportsBetting #NFLPicks