Tom Lee: Dovish Fed Impact in 2026 & Granny Themes Review скачать в хорошем качестве

Tom Lee: Dovish Fed Impact in 2026 & Granny Themes Review

TOM LEE: TOM LEE: We review our 7 key Granny Themes and the impact from a dovish Fed in 2026 $PNC $GEV $GE $EXPE $GS •📈 Granny ETFs Performance: For the week ending 12/15/2025, GRNY fell 0.54% vs. the S&P 500's 0.61% decline, resulting in +7 bps of relative outperformance. GRNJ fell 0.39% while its benchmark (Russell 2500) gained 1.08%, leading to -147 bps of relative underperformance. GRNI fell 0.50% vs. the S&P 500's 0.61% decline, producing +10 bps of relative outperformance. •🏛️ The Wall of Skepticism and The New Fed: The key narrative in 2026 is that there is still a "wall of skepticism" and a "New Fed." The Fed Put is coming back in 2026, confirmed by Chair Powell stating he is "not contemplating hikes" going forward. This means Quantitative Tightening ended in December, and QE is essentially starting. We expect the full effect of a new Fed Chair will be delayed, as the confirmation process took about 90 days for both Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. •📌 2026 Outlook for Granny Shots Themes The following are the investment themes and their expected outlook given the Fed "put" in 2026: -Style Tilt: Should remain unaffected, as it recalibrates every three months in response to changing market conditions. -Seasonality: Should remain unaffected, as it recalibrates every three months in response to changing market conditions. -PMI Recovery: Could accelerate under a more dovish stance from the Fed. -Energy and Cyber Security: May further strengthen in 2026, driven by rising AI-related power demand and continued onshoring initiatives. -Millennials: Remains unchanged and should not be materially impacted by a New Fed. -Global Labor Suppliers and AI: Retain strong visibility given the ongoing race to deploy AI systems. -Easing Financial Conditions: Should clearly receive incremental tailwinds from a dovish Fed. P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): A valuation ratio that shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of a company’s earn Russell 2500 Index: measures the performance of the 2,500 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks. About Fundstrat Capital: Fundstrat Capital is an investment management firm led by Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee, specializing in thematic, research-driven equity strategies. The firm applies in-depth macroeconomic, industry, and market trend analysis to develop actively managed investment solutions for a broad range of investors. About the Granny Shots Strategy: The Fundstrat Granny Shots strategy, grounded in Fundstrat’s evidence-based research, identifies the macro forces shaping markets and applies them through a disciplined, rules-based investment approach. By integrating longer-term structural drivers with shorter-term tactical factors, the strategy seeks to deliver long-term capital appreciation. Connect with Fundstrat Capital for daily insights: X: https://x.com/FundstratCap LinkedIn: / fundstrat-capital Sign up for news and updates: https://grannyshots.com/sign-up/ For media inquiries, contact [email protected]