Why are Northern Nigeria afraid of the disintegration of Nigeria?? скачать в хорошем качестве

Why are Northern Nigeria afraid of the disintegration of Nigeria??

Historical Power Structure Since independence, Northern Nigeria has held disproportionate political influence in national governance: • Longer periods of political leadership at the federal level • Strong control over military and security institutions • Influence in federal bureaucracy and policy direction A unified Nigeria preserves this centralized power architecture. Disintegration would dismantle the institutional advantages embedded in the current system. ⸻ 2. Demographic Leverage Northern Nigeria has the largest population bloc in the country. In a unified state, population size translates into: • Electoral dominance • Legislative advantage • Resource allocation influence • Policy control If Nigeria breaks apart, population size loses strategic value because political power becomes territorial, not demographic. ⸻ 3. Economic Dependency on Federal Structure Many northern states are fiscally dependent on federal allocations: • Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) is low in many areas • Heavy reliance on oil-derived federal revenue • Limited industrial base compared to southern regions Disintegration would force regions to survive on local economic productivity, which would structurally disadvantage many northern states. ⸻ 4. Access to Southern Economic Infrastructure A unified Nigeria gives the North access to: • Southern ports and maritime trade routes • Oil and gas revenue • Industrial hubs and financial markets • International trade corridors Separation would introduce economic borders, tariffs, and logistical constraints that could severely weaken northern trade capacity. ⸻ 5. Security Considerations Fragmentation increases: • Border insecurity • Terrorism mobility • Arms trafficking • Regional conflict risks Given existing security challenges (insurgency, banditry, terrorism), fragmentation would multiply instability, not reduce it. ⸻ 6. Loss of Strategic Relevance In a fragmented system: • Northern regions become landlocked political units • Geopolitical leverage decreases • International negotiating power weakens • Regional bargaining power declines Unified Nigeria gives the North continental-level strategic relevance it would not retain independently. ⸻ 7. Elite Interests vs. Mass Interests Much of the resistance to disintegration comes from political, military, and economic elites, not necessarily ordinary citizens: • Elites benefit from centralized federal power • Control over national institutions • Access to national resources • Influence over national policy Disintegration threatens these structures directly.