Excess Mortality - A Better Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths скачать в хорошем качестве

Excess Mortality - A Better Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths

Summary: Analyzing “excess mortality” provides a way to check whether death certificate labeling of deaths is exaggerated. Our analysis yields an excess mortality of 127,835 versus the CDC estimate of 299,028 for the analysis period of Jan 26 to October 3, 2020. The CDC value is biased high because of an inappropriate projection model that averages death rates for the past five years yielding 8.578/1000 for 2020, without COVID-19. A more rational model is a linear projection yielding 8.887384/1000. The CDC value is further biased high by the addition of 100,227 due to unspecified “weighting factors” related to late reporting. We compute projected deaths at 36 weeks = 331,539.123 x (36/52) x 8.887384/1000 = 2,039,895. Hence excess mortality = 2,167,730 - 2,039,895 = 127,835. This truer excess mortality of 127,835 is a better estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths. This number is less than deaths from the Asiatic Flu of 1058 (115,000) when the latter is pro-rated to 230,000 to correspond to a doubling of the USA population since 1958. During the Asiatic Flu of 1958, there were no lockdowns, no mask mandates, no disruption of schools and school sports, a public policy strategy much more in keeping with the Great Barrington Declaration which has recently been signed by thousands of physicians. If the mainstream media would stop the hysteria, present excess mortality and teach a more balanced strategy, Americans would readily see that the current lockdown strategy is worse than the disease.