Forecasting by Hand - An Absolute Beginner’s Excel guide скачать в хорошем качестве

Forecasting by Hand - An Absolute Beginner’s Excel guide

00:00 Introduction 00:56 Name Datasets 01:23 Chart 02:06 Number of Observations 02:25 xi * yi 03:06 x squared 03:34 Find the slope : a = ((Σxiyi − (N * x̄ * ȳ)) / (Σxi² − N·(x̄²))) 05:16 Find the intercept : b = ȳ - (a * x̄) 05:53 Find the base forecast : Y = (a * x) + b 07:36 Calculate the base forecast (Y) for previous observations 08:37 Divide actual values by predicted values for previous observations (yi / Y) 09:17 Find data that share a common pattern 11:44 Calculate an adjustment factor of your choice 12:40 Calculate a first adjusted forecast (= Y * adjustment factor) 13:12 Calculate another adjustment factor of your choice 14:09 Once the target date has passed, see which forecast was the most accurate and understand why