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In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: / fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: / forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: / blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forw... Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:06 Key Market Narratives 04:03 Trump's Economic Vision 13:28 Ads (Ondo, Ledger) 14:39 Trump's Economic Vision (Con't) 16:02 Technical vs. Actual Recession 20:02 Credit Cycle and Market Positioning 25:13 Market Pricing for Recession 30:15 Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts 32:39 Ads (Ondo, Ledger) 33:54 Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE 37:26 Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing 43:50 Portfolio Construction and Risk Management 47:34 KISS Portfolio System 52:29 Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.