From Potential to Possible to Actual How Real World Weather Events Emerge in Forecasts скачать в хорошем качестве

From Potential to Possible to Actual How Real World Weather Events Emerge in Forecasts

Extreme weather is on the rise on our warming planet. In a world where wildfires, intense precipitation, and severe storms impact lives and livelihoods, a good weather forecast can provide the critical information needed to manage risk and mitigate the worst outcomes. But exactly how far ahead can long-range weather forecasts provide a heads-up on a likely extreme weather event? And how do these forecasts evolve from months, to weeks, to days before a severe storm, intense rainfall episode, or heatwave? In this weather webinar, we review three case studies of extreme weather events over the past year, where long-range forecasts indicated that severe weather was likely on the way months before it arrived. Through these case studies, we explore protocols for how long-range forecasts can be used by planners and operators to mitigate risk through weather-ready strategies, deployed in stages as the likelihood of severe weather goes from potential to possible to actual.