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Strong Geomagnetic Storm Tonight!

Strong Geomagnetic Storm! Possible Widespread Auroras tonight! A coronal mass ejection (CME) is anticipated to impact Earth as early as Thursday evening, 6 November EST. Therefore we have a G3 (Strong) Watch in effect on the 6 and 7 November UTC-days. There is a fair measure of confidence in a Earth-directed aspect to this CME and a moderate level of confidence in timing of the CME arrival - which we anticipate with a range from as early as Thursday evening to Friday morning EST. However, as is usual with these events, we have less confidence in the intensity of the resultant geomagnetic storm upon eventual CME arrival and passage. Therefore, this G3 Watch represents our forecast based on potential. We have to wait until the CME arrives at the solar wind observatory spacecraft located at Lagrange Point 1 (L1), which is 1 million miles from Earth to actually realize what the intensity of the CME is - this is when we will finally know the true speed, magnetic strength, and magnetic field orientation of the CME. All these factors contribute to any needed Warning decisions. This is why accurate observations from that L1 location are so critical and why a much needed replacement in SWFO-L1 is warranted. The normal order of events for a CME impact at Earth are the arrival of the shock front followed later by the magnetic cloud. CME shock arrival can lead to immediate and sudden escalated geomagnetic responses. After shock passage, the strong magnetic field contained within the CME arrives some time later, that is when geomagnetic activity can increase dramatically if the magnetic field is favorable (aligned opposite Earth’s). Now we await the CME arrival at L1, so continue to visit the Nation’s official source for space weather warnings and alerts - NOAA SWPC - for the latest.