Influence of Deprivation on Birth Intentions in Recent Waves of Russian Migrants | Vladimir Kozlov скачать в хорошем качестве

Influence of Deprivation on Birth Intentions in Recent Waves of Russian Migrants | Vladimir Kozlov

How does displacement impact the decision to have children? In this lecture, Vladimir Kozlov (GSPP, NU) analyzes the fertility intentions of the recent "Russian Exodus" following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on data from the OutRush research group and pilot studies , the presentation compares this migration wave to Ukrainian refugees and historical cases like Venezuela and Belarus. The discussion explores how economic deprivation, legal status, and the development level of the destination country influence the reproductive behavior of these migrants. 00:00 Introduction: Migration, growth intentions, and political migrants 01:56 Demographic Context: Comparing Russian and Ukrainian migration numbers 06:37 Comparative Cases: The Venezuelan crisis and Belarusian outflow 10:38 Why study this group? Economic deprivation and "shock" migration 13:02 Age profiles of the migrants 16:35 Fertility trends within Russia after the invasion (Mobilization effects) 22:34 Defining the Status: Are they refugees or economic migrants? 28:45 Political Activists vs. the General Diaspora in Germany 37:34 Previous Research: Digital traces and survey data (OutRush, Rostock) 40:13 Theoretical Frameworks: Socialization, Selectivity, and Disruption 45:53 Comparative Data: Fertility of Russian women in Sweden and Germany 52:18 Pilot Study: Methodology and descriptive statistics 55:42 Pilot Results: Migration status and the desire to have children 01:01:47 Main Study (OutRush) 01:06:22 Main Results: Effect of migration timing (Pre vs. Post-invasion) 01:08:33 The Role of Income: Subjective wealth as a proxy for adaptation 01:09:31 Destination Effects: Birth intentions in Developed vs. Developing countries 01:15:22 Interaction Effects: Income levels across different country types 01:19:40 Employment and Social Networks: The impact of freelancing and friends 01:22:54 Conclusion: The conflict between having children and political activism Dr. Vladimir Kozlov is Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at Nazarbayev University. Date: November 26, 2025 Location: Osteuropa-Institut, Freie Universität Berlin This lecture is part of the 2025/26 lecture series "Mobility and Order". #russia #ukrainewar #migration #easterneurope