IMF expects Taiwan economy to contract 4% in 2020 скачать в хорошем качестве

IMF expects Taiwan economy to contract 4% in 2020

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecasts for global growth, warning that the coronavirus will trigger the worst economic turndown since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It predicts that Taiwan’s economy will contract 4% this year. By contrast, last October it had given a Taiwan growth forecast of 2%. Taiwan analysts say the IMF’s picture is too pessimistic. They say GDP growth will get support from solid domestic demand, government bailouts, and upcoming investment from Taiwanese expats leaving China. Due to the coronavirus fallout, the central bank has downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast to 1.92%. The IMF has an even more pessimistic outlook. In its latest report, the IMF slashed its projection from 2% to negative 4.0%. One Taiwan analyst believes that outlook is overly grim.Liang Kuo-yuanYuanta-Polaris Research InstituteThe IMF has no way of having a deep understanding of smaller countries and their economic situation. Not to mention that we are not an IMF member. Taiwan’s economic growth will fall, absolutely. But given the comprehensive situation, the rate will not be as low as negative 4%.Analysts say the IMF missed the mark with Taiwan, because it doesn’t know the situation on the ground. The IMF’s projections have fallen short before. In 2019, it forecast less than 2% growth amid U.S.-China trade tensions. Taiwan posted 2.7% that year.Darson ChiuThink tank analystOver the past few years, Taiwan has worked to lower its reliance on exports by bringing up domestic demand. I expect that in the coming months, the IMF will take stock and adjust its overly pessimistic prediction.The expert says he’s confident in Taiwan’s economy. Although the pandemic has dampened consumption, a stay-at-home order has yet to be imposed. If Taiwan rebounds quickly after the pandemic abates, he says, government bailouts, cheap oil and returning Taiwanese businesses will bolster GDP growth.