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To buy copper, merge; coal drags it down—Meta locks nuclear power, AI runs on gas ① Rio Tinto–Glencore: Copper vs. Deal Risk Renewed talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore are driven by copper’s rising strategic value amid energy transition and AI power demand. With new supply slow and capital-intensive, M&A offers a way to buy time. Markets, however, priced deal risks first—overpayment, coal exposure, regulation, and integration. The story reflects long-term copper strength, but near-term outcomes hinge on risk premia. ② Meta’s 6.6GW Nuclear Path: Power as a Competitive Edge Meta’s 6.6GW plan combines long-term nuclear PPAs with SMR development, forming a staged pipeline rather than immediate supply. As AI bottlenecks shift from chips to power, grids, and permits, big tech is diversifying energy sourcing. The strategy locks in availability to scale training and inference. In the interim, gas and grid upgrades are likely bridges. ③ Germany and Europe: Order Erosion and Strategic Autonomy Europe faces a structural dilemma as the rules-based order weakens. Carefully calibrated statements on Venezuela and Greenland reflect dependence on U.S. security alongside commitment to principles. This tension can reprice European assets via alliance terms rather than pure geopolitics. Over time, strategic autonomy in defense, energy, and critical materials gains urgency. At the start of the new year, subscribing, liking, and turning on notifications would mean a lot. Your support helps keep things steady this year. I’ll continue preparing each video with care. Feel free to stop by whenever you have time. Let’s take this year slowly and keep going together.