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The honest answer is this: we don’t know the exact timing. Market turnarounds aren’t dictated by dates—they’re driven by conditions. And several of those conditions are beginning to shift, faster than many people realize. First: interest rates. A meaningful rebound won’t happen until buyers are confident rates have peaked and are clearly trending downward. Even small cuts can improve sentiment, but what truly brings buyers back is stability. Once people believe borrowing costs won’t rise unexpectedly, activity tends to return quickly. Second: people—specifically first-time buyers. First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market. When they disappear, the entire system stalls. Investors depend on renters, renters depend on supply, and the entire chain relies on first-time buyers entering the market. Without them, there’s no movement up the property ladder—no upgrades, no downsizing, no secondary market momentum. When first-time buyers are locked out, condos sit. When condos sit, investors stay out. When investors stay out, rental supply stagnates or tightens. That’s how markets become stale. Third: supply and demand. Many condos were built specifically for end users and first-time buyers. If that group is absent, the resale market freezes. To absorb existing inventory and restore balance, population growth becomes critical. Historically, immigration has been a major driver of Toronto’s housing demand. Policy will eventually need to adjust to help absorb the current condo supply. Bottom line: the Toronto market doesn’t recover from the top down—it recovers from the bottom up. That means stabilized rates, the return of first-time buyers, and demand realigning with supply. Which, ultimately, means the government will need to gradually reopen immigration. If you want to understand where the opportunities are—not just when the market turns—subscribe and stay tuned. Alex Macale | Macale & Associates C21 Leading Edge Realty Inc. fb: / alexmacalerealtor IG: / filipinorealtor Website: https://www.alexmacale.ca