Computer modelling: all about the image? скачать в хорошем качестве

Computer modelling: all about the image?

Computer modelling is magic that turns empirical observations into our imaginary future. Plug enough data into a computer model, and out pour streams of values and seductive graphs. But from pensions to climate, the line between projecting a trend and predicting the future is often blurred. Should we be automatically skeptical of those who explain the real world of complex causality based on natural laws and human agency with the 'spurious realism' of abstract artefacts? Are data models too crude for public consumption and ought we restrict them to the world of domain experts? And how much does it matter if some of the details are wrong? Is domain expertise and the authority of the expert undermined or enhanced by the magical 'black box' of modelling? Data models are needed to signal how the future will probably turn out, if we are to plan anything in advance. But we also need a good idea of how closely to trust that map. The precision of graphs and numbers can stamp complex, informed speculation with undue scientific authority. This plain speaking debate sheds light on the limits of data models and the risk-averse retreat into statistics.