Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: A Follow up on Uncertainty and Catalysts скачать в хорошем качестве

Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: A Follow up on Uncertainty and Catalysts

In this session, I follow up on my earlier one, where I found Apple and Amazon to be over valued. I start by facing up to the uncertainty in each valuation, by running simulations for both companies, and find that while Apple's simulated values are more symmetric and less variable than Amazon's, I stand about an equal chance of being wrong on both stocks, with a greater cost to being wrong on Amazon. I also look at potential catalysts that can cause the price/value gap to close and see little likelihood of it happening in earnings reports or management changes. Apple's iPhone update cycle makes them more prone to reassessment, around each update, but there is a much bigger chance of a macro catalyst for Amazon, in the form of anti trust and regulatory action. Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pd... Blog Post: https://bit.ly/2I5BkBW