The 2025-2026 Crash: Why It Will Be Worse Than 1929 and 2008 Combined скачать в хорошем качестве

The 2025-2026 Crash: Why It Will Be Worse Than 1929 and 2008 Combined

The textbooks show us 1929 and 2008 as the worst financial crashes in modern history. But 2025 is different — this time stocks, bonds, and real estate are ALL crashing simultaneously in what economists call the Everything Bubble. When the stock market crashed in 1929, bonds were safe. When housing crashed in 2008, stocks recovered in 5 years. But in 2025-2026, there's nowhere to hide because every asset class is overvalued at levels never seen in history — and the Federal Reserve has no tools left to stop the collapse. From the S&P 500 trading at Price-to-Earnings ratios only seen twice before (1929 and 2000, both before crashes) to $36 trillion in government debt making bailouts impossible, to commercial real estate defaults that will destroy regional banks, this video uses financial data, historical patterns, and current economic indicators to show why the 2025-2026 crash will be worse than 1929 and 2008 combined: THE THREE BUBBLES (All Crashing Together): 1️⃣ STOCK BUBBLE: S&P 500 P/E ratio 28+ (average: 15-17, only higher in 1929 and 2000) 2️⃣ REAL ESTATE BUBBLE: Homes 50%+ above trend (2008 was 35%, this is 43% WORSE) 3️⃣ BOND BUBBLE: $36T government debt (125% GDP), $1.2T annual interest (largest budget item) 1929 COMPARISON - Same Warning Signs: Stock valuations at extremes ✅ Margin debt at records ✅ Wealth inequality extreme ✅ "This time is different" mentality (AI = 1929's electricity) ✅ Few stocks holding up market (Magnificent 7 = 30% of S&P 500) ✅ BUT 2025 WORSE: Everyone exposed via 401ks (58% of households vs 10% in 1929) 2008 COMPARISON - Same Patterns: Real estate overvalued ✅ Subprime lending everywhere (auto, credit cards, student loans) ✅ Banks overleveraged ✅ Derivatives explosion ($600T+ notional value) ✅ BUT 2025 WORSE: Fed already used all tools (rates can't go much lower, already printed $6T causing inflation) 12 WARNING SIGNS (Happening NOW November 2025): 1. Inverted yield curve UN-inverted September 2024 (recession 3-12 months after) 2. Credit card debt $1.14T record, delinquencies rising 3. Commercial real estate: $2T+ mortgages refinancing at 3x higher rates 4. Regional banks failing (SVB, Signature, First Republic, NYCB) 5. Magnificent 7 concentration (30% of S&P 500 in 7 stocks) 6. Insider selling at record pace (Bezos $13B, Zuckerberg billions) 7. Buffett hoarding $325B cash (Buffett indicator: 185%, danger above 120%) 8. Unemployment rising 3.4% → 4.1% (Sahm Rule triggered) 9. Auto loan delinquencies: 7.5% (highest since 2009) 10. Student loan crisis: $1.77T, delinquencies spiking 11. Geopolitical risks: Ukraine, Middle East, China-Taiwan 12. Commercial defaults beginning (Brookfield, Blackstone) WHY 2025-2026 WORSE THAN BOTH: 1929 HAD: Only stocks crashed (bonds safe) Only 10% in market (90% unaffected directly) Fed had credibility and tools Low government debt (16% GDP) 2008 HAD: Only housing crashed Fed could cut rates 5.25% → 0% Fed could do QE (balance sheet $800B → $4T) Government could borrow for bailouts (debt 67% GDP) 2025 HAS: EVERYTHING crashes (stocks + bonds + real estate) 58% exposed via retirement accounts (everyone loses) Fed out of tools (already did QE, caused inflation) Government can't bail out (debt 125% GDP, $1.2T/year interest) Baby Boomers retiring = 70M selling not buying No good options (raise rates = crash, lower rates = inflation, print = dollar crisis) THE TIMELINE: Based on yield curve (un-inverted Sept 2024): Recession 3-12 months after Critical window: December 2025 - September 2026 ← WE'RE IN IT NOW Commercial mortgages due: 2025-2026 peak Most likely crash: Q4 2025 - Q2 2026 WHAT HAPPENS: Stocks drop 65-80% (worse than 1929's 89% because faster) Bonds drop 35-50% (unprecedented, no safe haven) Real estate drops 40-60% (worse than 2008) Unemployment 15-20%+ (worse than 2008's 10%) Recovery: 10-20 years (not 5 years like 2008) 🔍 Research References: S&P 500 historical P/E ratios (Robert Shiller data) Federal Reserve balance sheet history (1913-2025) "Irrational Exuberance" by Robert Shiller (valuation metrics) Inverted yield curve analysis (Federal Reserve Economic Data) Commercial real estate crisis reports (Mortgage Bankers Association) Regional bank failures (FDIC records 2023-2024) Warren Buffett indicator (Wilshire 5000 / GDP ratio) Sahm Rule recession indicator (Federal Reserve) Consumer debt statistics (Federal Reserve Consumer Credit) "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" by Charles Kindleberger "This Time Is Different" by Reinhart and Rogoff (debt crisis patterns)