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Origins of the War with Michael Kofman

How did Russia’s war against Ukraine begin, and what strategic thinking led to the 2022 invasion? In this episode of Origins of the War, Michael Kimmage is joined by Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for a detailed analysis of the military and strategic roots of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The conversation traces the evolution of Russian thinking on security and power from the Russia-Georgia War of 2008, through the 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in eastern Ukraine, to the full-scale invasion in 2022. Kofman examines how Russian military planning, perceptions of NATO, and views of Ukraine’s sovereignty shaped the Kremlin’s decisions. The discussion also explores how Russian elites understand the international system, the role of great power competition, and the key miscalculations that influenced the course of the war. Understanding these historical and strategic dynamics is essential for interpreting the current conflict and its future trajectory. Michael Kofman is a leading expert on the Russian military and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.