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Probabilistic design Vs Prescriptive design

Probabilistic design concept in ship design and the SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) regulations evolved significantly over time. The probabilistic approach to damage stability was introduced in the 1990s, initially for cargo vessels over 100 meters in length, and later extended to other vessel types. This method considers the likelihood of various damage scenarios and aims to ensure a consistent level of safety across different ships2. The SOLAS 2009 amendments (Resolution MSC.216(82)) further refined this approach, emphasizing a more rigorous and thorough methodology for evaluating damage stability, especially for passenger ships. On the other hand, prescriptive design has been the traditional approach, where specific requirements and standards are set for ship design to ensure safety. This method prescribes exact measures, such as the number and placement of watertight compartments, to achieve safety goals3. The SOLAS Convention, first adopted in 1914 following the Titanic disaster, has been a cornerstone of prescriptive design, setting minimum safety standards for ships.