Listed Holdings 2 Canagold 2025 скачать в хорошем качестве

Listed Holdings 2 Canagold 2025

Why CanaGold Is My 2nd Largest Holding (18.6%) Hi and welcome back to Hedge Fund Manager. I’m Karl-Mikael Syding, and today I’m walking you through one of my largest listed equity positions — CanaGold Resources, which currently makes up 18.6% of my publicly traded stock portfolio. (Just to clarify — this doesn’t include my privately held equity portfolio. And that 0.2% Tesla position you might see? That’s a short, not a long.) ⸻ 🏔️ What is CanaGold? CanaGold is a junior gold mining company operating in northwestern Canada. And just to be clear — they’re not producing gold yet. They don’t even have their environmental permit in place. So what do they have? • Confirmed geological knowledge of the gold’s location and concentration • 1 to 1.5 million ounces of gold already confirmed • Potential for 3x more in the surrounding area • Additional resources like antimony, which has strategic value (e.g., in defense) This is a pure pre-production play — but with serious upside. ⸻ 💰 Valuation vs. Gold in the Ground Let’s do the math. • At $3,000/oz, 1 million ounces = $3 billion • At $4,000/oz (which I expect when they start mining), it’s $4 billion • Current market cap? Around $41 million USD Even factoring in costs, delays, and risk, that’s potentially a 100x return if things go well. And with more drilling ongoing, their resource base will likely increase over time. ⸻ 📈 My Thesis: A 32x in 5 Years CanaGold currently trades at around $0.22 USD per share. I think that’s roughly fair value for now, given how early-stage the project is. But here’s my forecast: If things play out right, I believe this stock could double every year for the next five years: • Year 1: 2x • Year 2: 4x • Year 3: 8x • Year 4: 16x • Year 5: 32x That kind of exponential return would place it at around 5x forward earnings once they’re in production — still cheap, in my view. And I don’t think it stops there. If the resource base grows as I expect, this could become a 60x or even 120x opportunity over a 10-year timeframe. ⸻ ⏳ What Needs to Happen Next There are two critical milestones to watch for: 1. Tlingit First Nation vote (summer 2024) • They have veto power over the project 2. Environmental permit (likely ~1 year after the vote) • Approval is highly likely if the Tlingit give a green light After that, it’s about getting mining equipment to the site, which could take 1–3 years depending on logistics and weather. I estimate first production to begin around 2028–2029, with meaningful cash flow following shortly after. ⸻ 🎯 Why I’m Comfortable Owning 18.6% I get it — it’s a junior miner with no revenue, no permit, and a long road ahead. But here’s what I see: • A $40M valuation vs $4B+ in future asset value • A reasonable timeline to production • A management team doing the right work (drilling, building relationships, progressing approvals) The asymmetry is clear. The downside is small relative to the multi-x potential on the upside. That’s why CanaGold is my second-largest listed holding — and why I believe it could be one of the best-performing stocks in my portfolio over the coming decade.