Fed Policy Mistake vs. AI Disruptive Boom: Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees скачать в хорошем качестве

Fed Policy Mistake vs. AI Disruptive Boom: Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees

In this week’s video, following the expected Fed rate cut, all four major U.S. equity benchmarks hit fresh highs together on Thursday for only the 26th time this century. Bond volatility is falling and credit spreads are at all-time lows, and futures imply multiple Fed cuts ahead. I dismiss “policy mistake” chatter, noting headline inflation ~3% and asserting cuts are warranted given a K-shaped economy and a weak labor market. More importantly, calling for mistakes is about being "right" and not about making money. Retail sales and older-age consumption remain firm, global breadth is strong, and earnings-call indicators of “uncertainty” and inflation mentions are falling. Despite all of this positive news, institutional sentiment remains oddly bearish (AAII, U Michigan), which serves as contrarian fuel despite continued signs of retail euphoria. The core structural driver is AI. Oracle’s results underscore an inference demand shock while the NVIDIA–Intel and Tesla–Samsung tie-ups signal a transition toward edge/embodied AI where NPUs (on-device “brains”) matter. This will lift PMIs via a data-center construction boom but also colliding with physical bottlenecks within power availability, turbines, generators, transformers, cooling, DRAM/HDD lead times. Gas turbines may satisfy only a portion of high-case future AI power needs, pushing hybrid solutions (backup generation, batteries, grid upgrades; new nuclear mostly post-2030) to a tide that lifts many boats. I highlight generator makers (CAT, Cummins, Generac) and battery/storage names gaining on backlogs, expect a commodities upcycle led by copper, which should help select EMs (Brazil/Chile/Mexico). I maintain a structurally bullish view on Bitcoin into yearend amid low institutional allocation. Timestamps: