Attrition or Annihilation: America’s Calculated Countdown on Iran” скачать в хорошем качестве

Attrition or Annihilation: America’s Calculated Countdown on Iran”

The United States stands at a critical crossroads in its confrontation with Iran. What was once envisioned as a short, decisive strike has quietly transformed into a meticulously planned attritional campaign aimed at systematically degrading Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and the capabilities of the IRGC. This strategic shift signals a fundamental change in U.S. objectives: from forcing immediate compliance to weakening the regime incrementally, over weeks or months, until it can no longer resist. Israeli operations over the past three years have prepared the ground, targeting Iran’s defensive systems and key military nodes, enabling the U.S. to escalate with greater precision and reduced operational risk. Meanwhile, Iranian domestic unrest, fueled by economic collapse, energy shortages, and months of widespread protests, has reached a level where state repression may no longer suffice. U.S. and Israeli planners appear to be leveraging these internal pressures as part of an “inside-outside” strategy, combining sustained external strikes with domestic instability to undermine regime cohesion. Diplomatic channels remain active but compressed. Turkey serves as a critical intermediary, hosting high-level Iranian envoys as they seek to forestall military action. Reports indicate that Iran’s written proposals may include limited uranium enrichment suspension, phased IAEA inspections, and essential sanctions relief—but will stop short of addressing ballistic missiles, regional proxies, or regime change demands. The window for negotiation is narrow, with the U.S. administration weighing both the costs of action and the consequences of restraint, aware that hesitation carries political, strategic, and regional risks. As spring approaches and military conditions improve, the stakes rise. A prolonged campaign would not only degrade Iran’s military capacity but also reshape the regional balance of power and test global alliances. The next 48 to 72 hours are pivotal: diplomacy may still avert a campaign, or the fully staffed, fully resourced U.S. attritional strategy could be set in motion. This crisis illustrates the complex interplay between military planning, domestic politics, and international diplomacy, and its outcome may redefine the strategic landscape of the Middle East for years to come.