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Sam Altman unexpectedly brings his timelines to AGI forward, while OpenAI backtrack on superintelligence. None of these changes were heralded, but they are significant. Plus the new year brings new assessments of the true capability of models to automate 'large swathes of the economy'. I'll give my prediction on that front for 2025, announcement a new Simple Bench competition, and showcase Kling 1.6 vs Veo 2 vs Sora, and much more. wandb.me/simple-bench (Colab): https://colab.research.google.com/dri... AI Insiders: / aiexplained TheAgentCompany Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.14161v1 Sam Altman Major Interview: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/20... OpenAI Agent Coming Jan 2025: https://www.theinformation.com/articl... Altman Singularity: https://x.com/sama/status/18756032494... Altman Original Timeline: • Joe Rogan Experience #2044 - Sam Altman https://www.ft.com/content/34a7a082-e... OpenAI Original Emails: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4... DeepMind Sky News 2014 Article: https://news.sky.com/story/google-buy... Altman Blog Reflections: https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections OpenAI Changes Who Gets AGI: https://openai.com/index/why-our-stru... OpenAI 5 Levels: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... Altman 2015: https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-in... OpenAI React to Anthropic: https://www.theinformation.com/articl... Microsoft $100B Definition: https://www.theinformation.com/articl... Epoch Scramble for Task Benchmark: https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1876692... GPQA Progress: https://epoch.ai/data/ai-benchmarking... Task Length Crucial for ARC-AGI: https://anokas.substack.com/p/llms-st... RL Environment Tweet: https://x.com/vedantmisra/status/1876... Jason Wei Talk: • Jason Wei: Scaling Paradigms for Larg... Miles Brundage Tweet: https://x.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1... Jan Leike Tweet: https://x.com/janleike/status/1872909... O1 Pro Losing Money: https://x.com/sama/status/18761043152... Kling 1.6: https://klingai.com/text-to-video/106... Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 01:03 - Altman Timeline Moves Forward 04:33 - Superintelligence? 06:55 - AGI was not the only pitch 09:26 - AgentCompany and OpenAI New Agent 17:24 - SimpleBench Competition 23:03 - Kling 1.6 vs Veo 2 vs Sora Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprou...